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TG2,

Does my vote on Fedyshen count, as it was before your post? Thanks.

My apologies in advance for the post count +10 or whatever this is going to turn into. I would usually do this all in one post with multiple quotes but I think it's more important than ever for me to be clear here.

Disclaimer: I have just finished another 9 hour shift in a 30 degree kitchen and have a dehydration headache again. It's not as bad as last night's though.


Euro, correct my if I'm wrong because I might have missed it while I was at work, but you're now one of the 3 remaining players to not have claimed. We know you're town because you were killed overnight. There is NO REASON for you to withhold information any more when the living players are putting themselves out there for the demon to kill tonight in order to get the town trusting each other.

Please can you tell us what role you have. Quite apart from anything else, we need to get a handle on the number of claimed town roles and claimed outsider roles. You can't use your role now anyway, and keeping it to yourself is actively harming the town.

I'm not sure I should be questioning you again after the debacle of the last 2 days, but are you willing to share why you think this? Berry I can understand, but Super is generally easier to read than a children's book and I do not trust his claim of Monk (now that's I've read the role again, anyway).

I'm willing to entertain the possibility that I've hit my red herring though, meaning that I only have 4 more players left to take a look at and it's a 50-50 that I get another Demon result tonight. This means the poisoner (if there is one, Andy could easily be lying) has to waste his poisoning on me tonight and other town roles will know their info is more likely to be good.

I do not think I was poisoned on Night 2 because most players bought my bluff (as intended) about the investigator. I could have been poisoned on Night 1 and poison lasts 2 nights, though.

Too many possibilities still...

This might be the best post you've made in the whole thread, Super.

My claim of investigator was deliberately phrased in such a way that I did not lie a single time, but was as convincing as possible that investigator was my role. I cannot believe that you saw through the bluff as easily as PS did, Andy. You had a whole night phase to think about it and you didn't raise even a single peep. If you believed I was the investigator you didn't counter-claim, and if you believed I was bluffing you didn't question me at all about what I'd said. If I had been investigator and someone else had made that bluff post, I'd have been all over them like a swarm of bees trying to get them to reveal their full information and catch them in a lie. What's more, I would haver expected the investigator to reveal his information MUCH earlier in the game than after the power town roles have claimed.

If I assume PS is telling the truth (and at this point I'm pretty sure he has the beating of me in any mafia game we ever play), he says he has 0 evil players seated next to him. I know I'm good, so the remaining possibilities are a) the less than 50% Berry is drunk, PS is true empath and not poisoned, and Andy is also good or b) the more than 50% chance that PS is drunk or poisoned. If zero is incorrect information as a droisoned empath would receive, Andy is evil.

Of course, this same logic also applies to me, so let me just dig my own grave a little more here...

Basically what I'm saying is that there's a slightly more than 50% chance that PS has an evil player sat next to him if he is to be believed, which I now do.

If PS was poisoned on Night 1, the poison wears off tonight. If both Andy and I are still alive then and PS doesn't get poisoned again, he will get true information. So now the poisoner has to pick between me, PS, and probably also the monk (whoever it turns out to be). This is the power of claiming roles all at the same time- the evil team doesn't know which powerful role to deal with first.

Of course, TG knows this, and that's why he closed the whisper thread immediately when we started claiming and has set up the game so none of our information is completely trustable.

Conclusion: I think there's a more than 50% chance that either myself or Andy is evil if PS is to be believed. Given that I know I'm good, I can conclude that it's likely Andy is.

Now this is a Monk claim I can believe. How much experience do you have playing mafia games, fedyshen? You seem to have a good grasp on what's going on.

Definitely worth monking PS tonight in my opinion. Quite apart from anything else, if I die to a demon kill it's good news for the town as it places you next to PS so he can get a read on you. Nobody else has claimed a powerful town role yet, although you'd have to hope we have at least 1 more among the three players yet to claim, and hopefully not Euro.

This is why we NEED a claim from the remaining 3 players. If there's exactly one more outsider claim then we know one of the monks is lying for a non-outsider reason. (Anyone care to guess who I think that might be? )

Maybe I was right to trust BlueBoar after all. I'm pretty sure now that there's at least one evil player between you.

You are not poisoned and you are not drunk. If the investigator is poisoned, either their night role doesn't happen or they get incorrect information, i.e. they would be told that a spy, scarlet woman or baron was in play in conjunction with the wrong names. You are not drunk because we have a 99.9% confirmed Librarian say that one of PS or BS is. The ONLY way you could be drunk is the wonderful combination that you have a 1 in 9 of being drunk as well as the 1 in 7 that HanSo7o was poisoned on night 1. Less than a 2% chance (you'll see this probability pop up again in a later post of mine too!)

You are either lying, or one of BS or BB is the poisoner. We're pretty confident that BS is town now so it's between you and BlueBoar.

The sensible lynch today is you. You no longer have a night ability so you should be happy to die to prove your innocence and isolate the minion, just as HanSo7o was.

(My confidence was knocked by my misread on PS, but I'm back on the warpath now! )

And I would like an answer to my question about your role, Berry. PS, fedyshen and I have put our necks on the line claiming powerful town roles and risking our own lives tonight (and I suppose we should count Super in this list as well). I'm bearing a huge weight of suspicion for the way I've gone about it. Yet here you are, the most trusted town player left alive, NOT sharing your role and muddying the waters on behalf of the evil team.

Mass role claiming is an all-in strategy by the town. We all have to do it or it doesn't work.

I cannot urge you strongly enough to claim, even if you don't have any useful information yet. Your lack of claim is more forgivable than Euro's, but still not good for the town. If you're worried about being killed tonight, we can get a monk to protect you, since we seem to have 2 of them.

BlueBoar saying PS "sounds like mayor" is irrelevant. He's claimed Empath. There is no benefit I can see to a mayor claiming a different powerful role. It might redirect an attempted night kill on him, but it also might not, and who knows where it would be redirected to.

PS was the first one to listen to my suggestion to claim his role, and that's good enough for me, especially as he basically whispered it to me on Day 1. Given that there's no counter claim, I pretty much trust him entirely now.

If you're suspicious of BlueBoar, you're not the only one. I've left him until last for a reason...

Oh hold on, I missed this in my first read through. You wanted me to put my hand up on fedyshen so you could shoot me, chyper?

I think that's a play for when we're down to 4 or 5 living players, to be honest. If we can lynch the minion today (it's got to be one of Andy or BlueBoar, in my eyes) then I can safely keep searching out the demon tonight. I have 4 players I haven't looked at yet. Regardless of who I pick, I'll be able to narrow the field of potential demons to a maximum of 4 players. Bam, you can then kill me off, the game doesn't end, you realise that I was telling the truth all along, and now you have a shortlist of 4 players to choose from, one of whom we are pretty sure is town already (Berry). Other roles can then be used to narrow the shortlist of 3 down.

There is always the caveat that I was poisoned on Night 1 or will be tonight if we miss the minion with our lynch, but honestly I'm done with worrying about the poisoner. There's only 1 poisoner in the game. He can't poison us all.

And if we can't rely on information, we fall back on what the game is actually all about: intuition of who is lying and who is not.

I was surprised too at how PS reacted to my bluff and pressure. I was really rather taken aback by it and I think that's why I felt bad (although it also made me believe him, because it sounded genuine).

On Day 1 AndyP whispered me, to say that he saw I had whispered to you, and to potentially not believe what you told me.

From this, I inferred that he was the empath and had gotten a result of 1 or 2 evil players seated next to him. He closed the whisper before I could get him to confirm it though. When PS whispered to me shortly afterwards and also suggested he was the empath... well, what was I meant to think?

At that time I was more terrified of an evil PS than I was an evil Andy or an evil you (no offence meant). Given how evasive PS was, I resolved to do whatever it took to get him involved in the game and poke him into maybe making a claim that could be counter-claimed. During Day 1 I came up the the idea to bluff investigator to push PS into action, and simultaneously make the evil team think I wasn't worth killing or poisoning. I didn't get a chance to whisper to Andy to confirm his role before whispering closed due to me being at work at godforsaken hours, and that is when it all blew up in my face. I made assumptions, they were wrong, and I suffer the consequences, one of which is you (understandably) not trusting me despite (!) me fully opening up to you and telling you literally everything, my plans, my role, everything. before anyone else.

I drafted a whisper to you and a whisper to Andy during Night 2. My plan was to unmask a minion PS with a counter-claim from Andy if he told me he was the real empath, and I placed my trust in you as my Night 1 information said you were not the demon. The chances of you being demon were vanishingly small (1 in 7 I was poisoned along with 1 in 9 you're demon- there's that less than 2% again) and I took a risk that you weren't the minion, which might have been wrong if Andy is telling the truth. It wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong this game.

I am sorry the whisper was so long. I'm sure it was hard to read. I knew I'd not have much time to answer any questions you'd have because I wanted to whisper Andy too, so I tried to pre-empt them. Yet another mistake.

My plan has failed quite spectacularly, , but I'm glad it did, because now we have an active, reasonably trusted, town-leading PS in the game.

I have no defence to the charge of being the spy, other than this:

How could I mess up so very, very badly, so many times, if I had perfect information?

I have somewhat close to a photographic memory. I could certainly (well, mostly) memorise a grimoire with only a brief look at it. At the very least I would know who was which role, which I most clearly don't have a bloody clue about.

I have been breadcrumbing my true role throughout the whole game, in the thread and in whispers, because I knew my bluff would put me under suspicion when I revealed it. Would you like me to pick the breadcrumbs out for you?

If anything, these breadcrumbs should suggest to you that I'm either genuine fortune teller, or demon (if you accept my spy defence). Demons know three roles that aren't in the game from the start. I could have picked Fortune Teller as one of the three roles and breadcrumbed it so I could safely claim it later, if I were demon.

This is why I have to die before I become one of the last three players alive. I will gladly accept my fate when the time is right for the good of the town.

But ask yourself this: would a demon really play the way I have played? As someone else has mentioned, it would be incredibly bold. I'm somewhat honoured that people think that highly of me, and simultaneously embarrassed that I have totally not lived up to it in this game.

And if that little essay doesn't make you all want to vote me off, then nothing will.

Goodnight, all. I'm on holiday! No work tomorrow!

Almost forgot! BlueBoar, you haven't claimed either yet...

(I'm really going to bed now before it gets too light outisde to fall asleep)

I think this Monk survives by my math. (seem to just be waiting on AndyP), unless votes change.

I'm open to ideas on who to protect if I survive the night. I've got a few ideas, but with so many 'confirm roles' I am torn, and there is no need to let the Demon know my plan.

I'm golfing in the morning but I'll try to get on before I tee off. I'll try my best not to hold anything up.

I'm starting to think you live in North America with me!

Well, this attitude lasted a long time. So very willing to be taken out of the game right up until you're given an option to do it, and to allow us to have a proper execution too? Sounds like someone wants to use up the nomination tonight. Is that what a minion would do to protect the demon?

It did, and the others that were quick off the mark

For goodness sake, chyper. I've already told you exactly why it's nearly impossible for me to be the minion.

Minions do not get told which 3 roles are safe to claim. Do you really think a minion would claim not one, but two different roles, knowing the likelihood of being counter-claimed and being put under suspicion?

Surely you can see that realisitically, I have to be either the Demon or the true Fortune Teller?

And if I am, can you not see the benefit of letting me get as much information as I can and then taking me out while it's still safe to do so?

You're in the game for this exact scenario. If you're on the good side, you should be totally fine with shooting me when we have 4 or 5 players left alive, thus confirming that I'm town and my information is good. That will be tomorrow, if we get a lynch today and there's another kill overnight. Just enough time for me to narrow down the list to a maximum of exactly 4 players.

Why aren't you fine with it? Want to shoot me early before I can narrow down the list of possibilities on your boss, maybe? We have no guarantee at all that you're a *good* gunslinger, after all.

When you've shot me, you should probably then get exiled anyway. We don't want the possibility of you being evil and shooting a town player when we have have 3 live players left plus you, handing the game to the Demon.